Today's fossil fuel dependent economies face two main problems. Firstly they must reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in order to avoid dangerous consequences of climate change.

Secondly, they must cope with reduced availability, increasing cost and price volatility of fossil primary energy sources, most importantly of oil and gas due to declining conventional sources and geopolitical conflicts.

Both of the reasons imply that fossil fuel supplies may decrease soon and persistently. While a transition towards a Post- or Low-Carbon Economy, an economy which does not dominantly depend on fossil fuels for the fulfilling of its energy needs, is desirable on climate change grounds, it may be inevitable due to external resource supply constraints.

The VEENEX project will study the economy-energy nexus, in order to inform such an adaptation process. It will do so using insights from the literature and history and by using economic models to simulate sudden price increases of fossil fuels to detect country and sector level vulnerabilities. Moreover, it will project effects on different key economic parameters such as employment or government revenues.

The results of this project will also contribute to the degrowth discussion. Detailed projections of sectoral vulnerabilities could provide valuable arguments for the transition to a Post- or Low-Carbon Economy. It might help to develop a path that offers the creation of a more equitable and sustainable society rather than just the „survival“ of non-renewable resources scarcities. This paper will describe the ambitions of VEENEX as well as first results from the historical analysis with respect to the economy-energy nexus.

This media entry was a contribution to the special session „Vulnerability and Energy Economy Nexus at the Sector Level: Analysis of Czech Republic“ at the 5th International Degrowth Conference in Budapest in 2016.